Disease Ecology Workshop: Disease Forecasting
In this workshop, Andrew Tredennick and Spencer Hall will present ongoing work from CEID's Disease Forecasting Working Group, aimed at forecasting the dynamics of infectious diseases over time using generic time-series models. That is, non-mechanistic, statistical models that rely only on time-series data and do not include underlying biological processes. Tredennick and Hall will demonstrate the approach by forecasting dengue incidence in San Juan, Puerto Rico, using an exponential smoothing model, and by comparing their forecast skill to published forecasts. Future research plans include forecasting with other types of models and diseases, as well as developing user-friendly code bases for CEID researchers. Discussion will focus on future research plans and how best to develop the software.
Wednesday, September 26 at 2:00pm to 3:00pm
Ecology Building, Computer Lab
140 E Green Street, Athens, GA 30602